What's That Race Worth

Comparing performances at different distances

Anyone who runs a lot of races usually encounters many distances, and it’s normal to wonder how your times at the different distances relate to one another. Was my recent half marathon better than that fast 10K I ran last year? Given my recent races, what sort of 5K time can I shoot for next month? The table included with this article should make it easy for you to answer these kinds of questions.

When I began racing in 1994, it was natural for me, a retired scientist, to want to equate my times for the different distances I ran. Many people had come up with many ways of making these comparisons, but these had problems: the results obtained from the various methods disagreed greatly; they didn’t include many common racing distances; and graphing their results (plotted versus distance) would often yield jagged curves instead of smooth ones. Two of the better existing approaches are those of James B. Gardner and J. Gerry Purdy (Computerized Running Training Programs, TAFNEWS Press, 1992) and Jack Daniels and Jimmy Gilbert (Oxygen Power). However, I envisioned a better table, one that would:

-cover all common racing distances from 1500m through the marathon;

-cover a wide range of athletic ability and be applicable to runners of all ages;

-contain data that would create smooth cruves when plotted versus distance;

-include time increments small enough to allow runners to approximated their time at any distance.

Finding a Database

My major obstacle in constructing a useful table was in obtaining experimental data. I needed race results of many runners - from all age groups - who have raced at different distances. I tried to use my running club, the Oregon Track Club Masters, as a source of data, but it had too few members, and its database hadn’t been well maintained.

Who might have a large database? With nothing to lose, I contacted the New York Road Runners Club (NYRRC) and spoke with Tom Kelley, who told me that the NYRRC sponsors many races each year and all of the results - including the age of every finisher - are stored on a computer. Tom referred me to Ben Grundstein to help me access some of this vast database. Ben is responsible for maintaining all racing information generated by the NYRRC. His records are so meticulous that for a given year, he can output the date, site and time achieved by a given runner in every NYRRC-sponsored race in which that runner participated. He has also developed a system for assigning point values, allowing him to predict from a runner’s age and results of a few races what that runner would do at another distance.