One Runner’s View: Age and the Elite Marathoner - Part II July 26
by Joel Tetreault & Erin Gemmill
1. Introduction
In a previous article (One Runner’s View: Age and the Elite Marathon [March 16]), we looked at one of the age-old questions in sport: “for a particular event or sport, is there an optimal age to compete?” Specifically, we looked at the ages of elite male marathoners to see if there were in fact any trends in the age at which male marathoners tended to medal, or set the fastest time.
The marathon, in particular, is an interesting event to focus on because of the conflicting opinion on when to focus on the marathon. One school of thought says that the marathon should be tried early on, while on the other hand, some believe that the marathon should be tried after one is no longer improving in the shorter track events (which assumes speed has been maximized).
On the men’s side, this dichotomy was apparent in our previous study: European countries, which followed the latter school of thought, had marathoners setting PRs over the average, while major marathon countries such as Kenya and Japan had marathoners running their best times just under the average. In addition, we observed that 27 years was the average for an elite marathoner to PR and also most likely win an Olympic medal. We found no trend in the age of PR or medaling over time. That is, per decade, the average age to PR or get an Olympic medal has hovered around 27 years.
In this article, we now look at the women’s statistics to see if our previous observations with the men generalize across genders. Looking at the ages of the top 10 women, we can already see some differences with the men:
| Name | Time | Age | |
| 1 | Paula Radcliffe | 2:15:25 | 29 |
| 2 | Catherine N’dereba | 2:18:47 | 29 |
| 3 | Mizuki Noguchi | 2:19:12 | 27 |
| 4 | Deena Kastor | 2:19:36 | 33 |
| 5 | Sun Yingjie | 2:19:39 | 26 |
| 6 | Yoko Shibui | 2:19:41 | 25 |
| 7 | Naoko Takahashi | 2:19:46 | 29 |
| 8 | Zhou Chunxiu | 2:19:51 | 27 |
| 9 | Berhane Adere | 2:20:42 | 33 |
| 10 | Tegla Loroupe | 2:20:43 | 26 |
Although the average age of the top 10 all-time performers for women is very similar to the top 10 men (28.40 to 28.70), the distribution of the ages is different. While the men have half of the top 10 over 30, and 3 under 26 years old, the women have exhibit a much tighter distribution: only two are over 30, and the youngest is 25.In this article, we look at the same questions as last time:
- Are younger runners more likely to medal in the Olympic marathon than older ones? What is the average age of an Olympic marathon medalist?
- Is there a trend (increasing or decreasing) over the last 100 years of Olympics for athletes of a certain age to be more likely to medal?
- At what age is someone most likely to PR in the marathon? (What is the average age that an elite marathoner PR’s?)
- Are there any trends over the decades regarding this average age? (Maybe runners from the 1950s were more likely to PR in their later years, rather than runners now)
- Being more specific, what is the average PR age of top level marathoners per country? (Do successful marathon countries have guys that are older or younger than the norm?)
It is important to remember that because women have been marathoning for a short period of time compared to the men, there is a lot less data from which to derive reliable conclusions, so take the analysis with a grain of salt.
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